19 to 21
Baseball 2011

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  John Shiffert has been a sportswriter off-and-on since he was in the 11th grade at Germantown Friends School . . . which is longer ago than he cares to admit. A native Philadelphian currently living in exile outside of Atlanta, he is a member of the Society for American Baseball Research, a true red Phillies fan who is still enjoying re-living the 2008 baseball season, a certifiable history nerd, and the author of three baseball history books, the most recent of which, "Base Ball in Philadelphia," is the story of the game in the City of Brotherly Love from 1831 to 1900. His fourth book, on that very same 2008 baseball season, "The Breaks Even Out and Midnight Comes Quickly for Cinderella," is now available. 

Contact John at JohnShiffert@mail.clayton.edu.

19 to 21…

Volume 10, #6; February 7, 2012

Sliding Billy

  February being something of a slow month as far as hard baseball news is concerned, the devoted fan is sometimes reduced to checking out the most obscure “notes” items in the various Hot Stove League columns. And while it may not be of much significance to learn that the Rays beat Jeff Niemann in arbitration, or that the Dodgers signed Todd Coffey, or that Scott Boras conned the Nats into signing yet another of his clients (Rick Ankiel, in this case), a brief mention that Billy Hamilton might be considered someday for the Reds’ shortstop job was attention getting.

  Not just because Billy Hamilton was an outfielder. And not just because he passed away in 1940 at the age of 74, but also because this Billy Hamilton stole 103 bases last year… a Rickeyesque figure that hasn’t been approached in the majors since Vince Coleman stole 109 in 1987. Immediately after that landmark, Rickey Henderson his ownself stole 93 in 1988, and no one else has even reached 80 since. As the offensive pendulum has swung back towards power hitting over the past 25 years, triple figures in stolen bases have become as rare as a healthy J.D. Drew season.

  That wasn’t the case in the 80s; either the 1980s or the 1880s. The former was the heyday of Henderson, when he reached 100 steals three times, and topped out at 130 in 1982. It was also the culmination of the career of Coleman, who hit triple digits three straight years, from 1985 to 1987. Now the 1880s (and 1890s), that’s when THE Billy Hamilton, known as “Sliding Billy,” was an offensive force the likes of which baseball has seldom seen. A force that was belated elected to the Hall of Fame in 1961, and set what may be the most amazing offensive single season record in the game’s long history.

  Hamilton stole his way on to the baseball scene in 1889, stealing 111 bases for the then-major league American Association Kansas City Cowboys. He followed that up with 102, 111 and 100 steals for the Phillies in 1890, 1891 and 1894. Those are also impressive numbers, although Hamilton wasn’t the only base stealer in triple figures in that era. Tom Brown had 106 one year, Arlie Latham reached 109, and Monte Ward 111 (obviously a popular number). And those weren’t even the highest totals. Someone named Hugh Nicol, playing in Cincinnati in 1887, stole 138 bases… still the all-time record.

  It is also true that the means of tabulating stolen bases was different in the 1880s and up through the 1897 season. A stolen base was sometimes awarded when a player took an extra base on a ball in play, say when the runner went from first to third on a single, or moved up on an infield out. Still, Hamilton’s steals figures were legitimate given the scoring rules of the day, and, they may not be as inflated as one might think, since, when the steals rule was changed to the modern rule, Hamilton’s yearly total dropped by just a dozen, from 66 (1897) to 54 (1898). Furthermore, modern research into Hamilton’s stolen base totals, using the modern stolen base rules, actually produced the 111 totals for 1889 and 1891. He was originally credited with 117 and 115 in those years, meaning that the 111 totals are modern re-adjustments – they’re the real thing, a fact that leads to the impression that official scorers of that era were loathe to credit what they must have considered “cheap” stolen bases.

  Whether or not one accepts Hamilton’s stolen base totals – his career figure, BTW, was 912, a total higher than Ty Cobb’s old record, something Hamilton himself liked to point out – there’s no getting around his most remarkable record, and his most outstanding skill. The man scored runs. A lot of runs. In 1894, Sliding Billy (so-called because he was one of the first head-first sliders), all 5-6, 165 pounds of him, scored 198 runs in 132 games. Let’s put that into perspective. Fred Dunlap scored 160 runs in 1884; that was the first time anyone had made it to 160. The next year, Tip O’Neill scored 167. In 1891, the aforementioned Tom Brown, who was, like Hamilton, a fine base stealer, moved the record up to 177. Three years later, Hamilton obliterated that mark by 21.

  Although breaking an individual record by a huge margin will often indicate that the old record was “soft,” that wasn’t the case with runs scored. For almost 30 years after Hamilton’s 1894 season, no one came closer to his mark than 166, and that was Hamilton himself in 1895. In 1921, Babe Ruth tied Brown’s 177, which to this day is the second-best single season total. Lou Gehrig matched O’Neill with 167 in 1936, and no one else has been over 165, ever. The most runs scored in a 162 game season were 152 by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Seventy-three, or 70, or 61 home runs may be impressive, as are 191 RBIs, or even 138 steals, or 67 doubles, but Hamilton’s 198 runs scored is Bob Beamon territory, except that no one has ever reached 90 percent of Hamilton’s record, even given 30 more games in a season.

  Some may want to quibble that Hamilton’s run total was inflated by the high-scoring 1890s. It’s true that the National League averaged 7.38 runs per game in 1894, and averaged about 30 percent less -- 5.14 runs per game -- in 2000, the year Bagwell set the 162 game season record. If you thus subtract 30 percent of Hamilton’s runs, he scored the 2000 equivalent of 139 runs, still more than a run per game, and still proportionally more than Bagwell’s 152 runs in 159 games. Since modern baseball began at the start of the 20th Century, the number of players who have scored more than a run per game over the course of a full season is very small...

Lou Gehrig – 1936
Lou Gehrig – 1931
Chuck Klein – 1930
Kiki Cuyler – 1930
Rogers Hornsby – 1929
Babe Ruth – 1928
Babe Ruth – 1927
Babe Ruth – 1921

 It’s only been done eight times, by a total of five players, and recall that the late 20s and early 30s were also a very high scoring era. It’s also worthwhile to note that, for his career, Hamilton averaged more than a run per game, scoring 1690 times in just 1591 games, and those games weren’t all played after the pitching distance was increased in 1893.

 The first Billy Hamilton was, besides being one of the three members of the Phillies All-Time Outfield, one of the great leadoff men of all time. Dare we say it… as good as Henderson. His OPS+ was 141, Henderson’s was 127. In addition, Hamilton won two batting titles, and led the NL in on base percentage five times, walks five times, steals four times (plus his one AA title) and runs scored four times. So, it is patently unfair to compare the current Billy Hamilton to Sliding Billy. In fact, he might be better off changing his name to Henry Cotto, or something similar.

 This Billy Hamilton, a second round draft choice of the Reds in 2009, is a 21 year old switch hitter who stands 6-1 (seven inches taller than the original) and who indeed did steal 103 bases (he was caught 20 times) last season for Dayton in the Single A Midwestern League. His offensive profile is that of a classic base stealer. In 135 games he had just 18 doubles, nine triples and three home runs, while scoring 99 runs with a .278/.340/.360 slash line. While he may profile more as being a fifth outfielder/pinch runner at the major league level (think Greg Golson), a 103 steals are still 103 steals. It would be one of those great intersections of fate, for which baseball is so famous, if another Billy Hamilton became a great base stealer, after the passage of an entire century.